The bid to instinctively expand spheres of influence, deterring threats, and outmaneuvering rivals, is as primordial as human society. If politics is the art of the possible, then geopolitics is the statecraft of navigating the inexorable, and geospatial visualization is the science of change detection and stock-taking.
First coined in the heady aftermath of Soviet dissolution, New World Order signifies a path-breaking epoch when there is a rupture in established power equations, and a rapid re-alignment in normative social, cultural, economic, and political configurations.
Shedding light on the constraints, compulsions, and behavior of countries in a multi-polar world, Sanjay Kumar, CEO, Geospatial World, says “Change is not comfortable, but it is inevitable, however changing out of compulsion is reactive, but out of choice is pro-active”.
Resolute Engagement
The broad Indo-pacific region is not only a test-bed where the rumblings of incipient new world order can be heard. With Beijing’s assertive naval encroachments and the increasing risk of conflict in Taiwan, it is at the vanguard of deepening collaboration between Quad countries based on shared values and commitments.
On the first day of Indo-Pacific Geo-Intelligence, Robert Cardillo, Chair, USGIF, framed the discourse around ‘Indo-pacific’ being not just a place on the map, but home to around half of the world’s population
Highlighting some of the common challenges before Indo-pacific countries, from sustainability, illegal fishing, and economic inequality, he paraphrased US President Joe Biden that ‘future of all of our nations depend on free and open Indo-pacific’
“Given the fact of China’s rise and its diplomatic heft, all stakeholders must work proactively to institutionalize arrangements and build transparency”, says Cardillo.
“Transparency doesn’t always lead to agreements, but informs our perspectives and understanding. In a bipolar world led by USA and USSR, tech was kept under the wraps as a closely guarded secret. But today, the world has changed. We have commercial companies collecting RF; SAR is becoming commonplace. Satellite companies contribute to situational awareness capabilities today. Enormity of this change is exciting as well daunting”, he adds.
Reflecting on the massive upsurge in satellite imagery and GeoInt in the run-up to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he calls the increasing partnership between government-military and commercial players, as a new reality.
“There’s going to be more interactivity between communication layer and data layer. Quad was born out of a humanitarian reality of tsunami. We do a great job together when we are in crisis. Indo-Pacific will be the centerpiece of the world going forward”.
Boosting Navigation
Defining Quad as a ‘soft security mechanism’ reaching out to all countries, Brigadier Arun Sehgal, Director, The Forum for Strategic Initiative emphasizes the need for India to expand IRNSS to South East Asia to provide them GNSS alternatives.
Indo-pacific countries need massive technological collaboration and data and info sharing. “We need investments in satellite navigation systems, robust geospatial infrastructure, forge partnerships, and optimize collaboration”.
“There need to be initiatives not to constraint China but to offer them alternatives. Whole ideation is to create ‘rules based systems’ so that people make their own choices”.
He also lays a distinction between land-based powers and maritime powers, and how geography influences strategy. “The centrality of the Sino-Russian alliance is that it is a continental bloc, and Indo-Pacific is today economically, politically, and in terms of supply chain the most consequential region.
Digging Deep
“There are four key factors driving geopolitics today: climate crisis, disruptive technologies such as AI, demographic changes and shifts, and the type of political systems, whether inclusive or exclusive”, says Ambassador Gautam Mukhopadhaya, who served as India’s envoy to Afghanistan, Syria, and Myanmar. He stresses on the need to harness the power of geospatial and space.
Posing a question about the contours of the New World Order and place of the world’s largest country in it, he says “India has the potential of being a multi-polar country but a lot rests on inclusivity and harmony”.
“There’s a need of new governance models. For the last 100 years we have failed here. By and large, over the last decades, any model that was people centric, has either shrunk or occupied. From the French Revolution till date, the struggle for man has been the struggle for freedom”, he adds.
Terming ‘bipolar’ and ‘multipolar’ as sorts of misnomers today, he terms ‘tri-centric world’ as something closer to realities and shifts underway.
Enormous Utility
Highlighting the ubiquity and indispensability of spatial insights, Hirokazo Mori, Chief Strategy Officer, WarSpace, says “Geospatial Intelligence is crucial for shared national security threats as well as disaster management, planetary health, supply chain, cyber security, surveillance, and airborne defense”
“EO can be used in everything from flood monitoring, forest fire detection, and maritime monitoring. Cross-border public-private partnerships and entities”, he adds.
