In hindsight, India’s New Space economy has made significant progress over the past few years, but to harness its true potential there’s a need for a calibrated approach for removing regulatory bottlenecks, enhancing transparency, and enabling access to funds and new markets.
“As we can see most of the NewSpace India participants are testing the waters. They have been learning by doing. Now the time has come for a more structured approach that enables better incubation. Fortunately, Antrix is open to such ideas. Various policies and acts need to change from being restrictive to being enabling.” ~ Geospatial World, March-April 2018 ~
In 2018, a survey of the emerging entrepreneurs in the nascent private space industry, NewSpace India showed that there was huge enthusiasm for space opportunities, both upstream and downstream. While heavy industries such as Godrej, L&T, Walchand, HAL were already supplying a majority of the requirements of launchers and satellites to ISRO, many other MSMEs were also working on the downstream technology and applications. Almost all of them are interested in carving out a fresh identity as space industries in their own right. Four years back it seemed rather ambitious in this regard.
That time there was no Space Policy except a draft document which was much discussed, and not seen as an enabler of such independent efforts like NewSpace India. Space Communications Policy, Space Remote Sensing Policy and a whole raft of 14 other policies and acts that governed geospatial activities in India were not seen as enterprise-friendly.
New Beginnings
Things began to change from 2021 onwards. A new Geospatial Guidelines was issued in February which superseded all other policies related to geospatial data acquisition and mapping. A National Geospatial Data Policy – and hopefully an Act – is under approval by the Cabinet.
In February 2022, a draft Space Policy was circulated for comments and awaits Cabinet approval. This will supersede all other Space-related policies and will be followed by a Space Act to be passed by the Parliament. The result of these efforts is expected to make for a better-enabled playing field for private entrepreneurs.
In September, the government notified the creation of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (IN-SPACe) as an autonomous agency in the Department of Space (DOS) for enabling space activities, as well as, the usage of Department of Space-owned facilities by Non-Governmental Private Entities.
Current Scenario
From barely four industries in 2018, the number of enterprises in the startup space has exceeded 250 this year. Though the ecosystem started late, it is growing fast. The participants are bullish but the ecosystem continues to appear as an extended arm of the government’s space programme and has a low impact. There is a need for a nurturing ecosystem and evangelisation to enable it to mature. It is estimated that with this approach, it may take another five years to independently evolve.
There is a need for a nurturing ecosystem and evangelisation to enable it to mature. It is estimated that with this approach, it may take another five years to independently evolve
As of now, many Indian space companies are in the news. Skyroot has launched its Prarambh Mission, an experimental launcher Vikram-S from SHAR utilising the ISRO launch facilities through IN-SPACe at a ‘nominal cost’. Agnikul is not far behind. It proposes to conduct its first launch in late 2022. It is the recipient of the ISRO-built Flight Termination System which provides for Mission safety in the event of a malfunction. Bellatrix has opened a new factory near Kempegowda International Airport in Bangalore. Their US$ 76 million factory will be ready by 2023. Their products are a range of thrusters and they are aiming for manufacturing Orbital Transfer Vehicles popularly known as Space Taxi.
Satsure, a company working on the use of space imagery in a variety of applications has acquired KaleidEO, a company developing high resolution optical payloads with edge computing based on Satsure’s AI/ML package. Other companies acquired by Satsure are GeoSpoc and CropTrails for agriculture-related applications. Another company Pixxel Space is on track to launch a constellation of satellites with 5m resolution hyperspectral sensors. The first, Shakuntala was launched on SpaceX Transporter 4 mission in April 2022, and the next one, Anand was launched on PSLV C-54 on November 26.
These are exciting developments. Start-ups in the Space sector are beginning to realize their dreams, and with that comes sobering thoughts about continuity and sustainability. There are several issues that need attention – capital, human resources, policy, support from ISRO and the market.
In a report on “Why do Indian Founders in the Space Industry start their start-ups abroad?” produced by Spaceport Sarabhai, a think tank addressing space-related matters, some of the problems that are faced by entrepreneurs have been studied in depth and the summary of their results are reproduced in Table 1.
Access to Capital
While the nascent Indian space industry has not exactly set the financial world on fire, a modestly steady beginning has been made. A quick look at the five companies in the news shows a total valuation of about US$ 360 million in 2021. Major funding is for the industries related to the upstream activities while the downstream companies pull in lower amounts. The number of companies involved in upstream activities is slightly more than the ones involved in downstream activities. This is a matter of concern as will be discussed later.
In comparison, the total space economy in India is about US$ 9.6 billion. Even at this level India’s share of the world space economy is barely 2.6 percent and contributes 0.5 percent of the GDP. The Indian Space Association, ISpA avers that “with the rapidly growing space ecosystem, India is prepared to grow to $13-billion by 2025 at a compound annual growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%”. The keyword is ‘prepared’.
It remains to be seen whether the capital flows both to ISRO-DOS and to the industry will match these projections. Can there be a major up-funding from the Government to ISRO-DOS? More importantly, are Indian investors with deep pockets willing to take the risk of investing in Space activities? As of now, Indian angel investors have contributed in units of millions where foreign investments are in the tens of millions.
Start-ups in the Space sector are beginning to realize their dreams, and with that comes sobering thoughts about continuity and sustainability. There are several issues that need attention – capital, human resources, policy, support from ISRO and market
Boosting Investor Confidence
Today most Indian investors are in the game for fear of missing out on Space, but at the same time, they restrict themselves to the pre-seed and seed funding stages. One reason for not going on to larger funding is that many startups lack a good business plan.
As it stands, Indian investors are risk averse and prefer safe investments like 5G rather than long-term, high-risk investments in space technology. In this situation, the bubble of space industry euphoria may burst at anytime.
The Indian investor market lacks independent think tanks that can study the upstream and downstream in Space markets and give investors an independent assessment of the prospects of a company entering the Space industry.
Without independent assessments, Indian investors have to depend on studying business plans of prospective industries. If they come across a good business plan, they are willing to invest and wait for five to seven years before getting any returns.
In the case of foreign investments, an additional issue is FDI on which the Ministry of Home Affairs is moving fast but ISRO is dragging its feet. If this is sorted out then foreign fund inflows will pick up beyond the tens of millions level.
Downstream industries do not need very high levels of capital and are therefore preferred by Indian investors. The returns come in faster which is an attraction. Further, ISRO has been pushing downstream industries in preference to upstream ones. The success of Skyroot may provide the nudge needed to make upstream industries more attractive to investors.
Greater attention to these issues is needed to be able to realise the 2025 goal.
Human Resource Constraints
As of 2021, these companies employed about 400 people. An industry head working in downstream activities is very appreciative of Indian engineering graduates. They are willing to take risks but at the same time they come from a poor educational culture which does not teach them to question. They lack communication skills and business thinking which is a big drawback when it comes to making presentations to potential investors and clients.
Another industry head working in the upstream area concurs. The need is for marketing persons with a technical background but such MBA graduates tend to be risk averse and prefer to work with known business houses at market salary levels. A few may get disillusioned with routine projects and prefer challenging jobs and may gravitate to Startups working on cutting-edge technologies and products.
Freshers from select top institutions are preferred as they pick up quickly but freshers from Tier 2 and 3 institutions need to be trained before they get into the mainstream. Skilled people are hard to get. While retired ISRO personnel are a huge support there is a need for scouting out other skilled persons, typically mid-level engineers in big enterprises who are seeking a change from corporate culture.
Another issue is pay disparity. Computer and Communications engineers seek market salaries which tend to be high. As a result, nearly 60 to 70 percent of the budget has to be reserved for salaries which impact the creation of facilities and purchase of raw materials needed for upstream activities. Startups also face poaching by bigger companies. It takes two to three years to get a fresh engineer up to speed. At this point, they are offered higher salaries – maybe upto two to three times – which result in an unnecessary turnover which leads to delays.
Educational institutions need to address some of these fundamental problems. The existing pedagogy has to be changed. According to an industry expert young engineers with a stint of education abroad are much better equipped to handle technical and business challenges because they have learnt to question and study with an open mind as opposed to the Indian method of rote learning. Hopefully, the NEP might have answered some of these issues.
Policy Issues
The delay in the passing of the Space Policy is becoming a big drag. While the geospatial guidelines are a very good step but issues remain. How does one meter map resolution translate to sensor resolution, particularly where the sensors are not optical but microwave? The draft Space Policy has the answers but unless they see the light of day industry will have to go by the existing individual policies which are nearly 18 in number and are at least a decade old.
FDI of 70 percent will be needed, particularly by companies working on upstream activities. ISRO is a global brand and any company with support from ISRO can hope to rise funds but a more lasting arrangement is through trade policies. Most countries prefer to see the funding go to local industries but when there is a trade policy between countries this limitation can be overcome. Australia and Canada have such policies which give their industries access to global investments and markets.
The incubation of nascent industries is lacking in India. The Atal Incubation Centres are a step in the right direction and the raising of grants to Rs 80 lac will encourage many potential entrepreneurs to take the plunge.
While the nascent Indian space industry has not exactly set the financial world on fire, a modestly steady beginning has been made. A quick look at the five companies in the news shows a total valuation of about US$ 360 million in 2021
ISRO Support
The current administration of ISRO and the creation of IN-SPACe has resulted in a change in ISRO’s approach to startups. ISRO is opening up and trying to do something different. But there are hiccups.
For example, the launch of Vikram-S by Skyroot was from an ISRO facility and used ISRO staff support on payment which was nominal as per Skyroot. One of the roles of NSIL is to provide commercial access to ISRO facilities, but this route was not used. It appears that NSIL faces a conflict of interest as it is also the owner of the SSLV being developed by ISRO. Launchers like Skyroot’s Vikram and Agnikul’s Agnibaan are competitors to SSLV.
Engaging Clients
Access to clients is different for upstream and downstream industries. Downstream clients are many in India and abroad. As per an industry expert, India presents a very good market because clients are open to adopting new processes.
The Indian policy stresses the use of satellite EO data for many application areas in agriculture like claims settlement and loan assessment. Banks and RBI have begun to use satellite EO-based systems to speed up their processes. The expert felt that it was easier to work with Indian clients rather than foreign clients. In his opinion countries in Europe do face a degree of decision paralysis when it comes to satellite-based EO.
Upstream industries find India to be a limited market therefore the need is to be able to access foreign markets. This is an uphill task. The solutions are manifold.
The industry has to open subsidiaries in countries of interest. Starting Joint Ventures with foreign companies is another option. As mentioned earlier, Free Trade Agreements with different countries are a third possibility.
Conclusions
From 2018 to 2022, the number of startups jumped by a factor of 60, indicating that entrepreneurs do find space as an important sunshine area where they are willing to take the risks. As of 2021, there were twelve startups in space manufacturing (launchers and satellites), ten in space applications and five in other activities, which gives a ratio of 12:5:10.
It is a matter of concern that the measure of the Indian space economy is in the ratio of 9:21:70 for space manufacturing, space operations and space applications (India’s Space Economy, 2011-12 to 2020-21: Its Size and Structure by Sunil Mani, V.K. Dadhwal, C.S. Shaijumon, Space Policy, Elsevier, in press).
Further, the bulk of the applications is related to communications, the internet, and broadcasting which tends to distort the overall numbers of the space economy both in India and globally.
Both IN-SPACe and entrepreneurs need to understand this and prepare their business plans accordingly. Perhaps the fact that ISRO is encouraging downstream activities may reflect this situation. Many small satellite launchers are failing globally and it is necessary to consider the economy of small satellite launchers in the light of reusable heavy launchers which can carry multiple small satellites.
NewSpace India has been growing since 2007. 2022 represents a milestone year in terms of policy and structural changes. The future is bright but there is a need to proceed with caution because, to quote Prof U R Rao, the third Chairman of ISRO, “Space is not for the chicken hearted”.
