Is the Paris Agreement Crumbling to Dust?
COP28 is around the corner, and rigorous discussions on climate change, ways to curb greenhouse gas emissions, and to adopt policies that can stop the globe from further warming will be at an all-time high, but if we look back and evaluate, we are way behind the target and the pace is painfully slow.
Summer 2023 broke temperature records globally by a wide margin and these record breaking temperatures continued through to September, making 2023, the hottest year ever in the ERA5 data record which goes back to 1940, according to the latest monthly bulletin from the Copernicus Climate Service (C3S).
According to a new report from the World meteorological Organization (WMO), the abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year and there is no end in sight to the rising trend.
“Despite decades of warnings from the scientific community, thousands of pages of reports and dozens of climate conferences, we are still heading in the wrong direction,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
Global averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas, in 2022 were a full 50% above the pre-industrial era for the first time, which continued to grow in 2023.
The global average sea surface temperature over the extra polar oceans was also the warmest on record for September, at 20.92°C, and the second warmest for any month, only behind August 2023, while El Niño conditions continued to develop over the equatorial Pacific.
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of C3S, states, “This makes me nervous about what is to come. When we combine all the data together, the global air temperature records, the global sea surface temperature records, the global sea ice records, all of these indications together really show us that our climate is changing at a very rapid pace and we have to adapt to the climate that we are facing right now,” Burgess said. “We can say with virtual certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record,” she added.
Burgess noted that temperatures have temporarily exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures for the past three months of 2023. “This doesn’t mean we have broken the Paris Agreement, but the reality is that the more days, weeks, or months we have above 1.5°C, the sooner we will exceed the Paris Agreement limit,” she said.
Reality Check
Change must come faster in the form of economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations, with a strong focus on energy. The coal, oil and gas extracted over the lifetime of producing and planned mines and fields would wipe out almost the whole remaining carbon budget for 2°C – and obliterate the 1.5°C budget many times over. Governments can’t keep pledging to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement and then greenlighting huge fossil fuels projects; this is throwing the global energy transition, and humanity’s future, into question.
As greenhouse gas emissions hit new highs, temperature records tumble and climate impacts intensify, the Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again) finds that the world is heading for a temperature rise far above the Paris Agreement goals unless countries deliver more than they have promised. The report is the 14th edition in a series that brings together many of the world’s top climate scientists to look at future trends in greenhouse gas emissions and provide potential solutions to the challenge of global warming.
“The current level of greenhouse gas concentrations puts us on the pathway of an increase in temperatures well above the Paris Agreement targets by the end of this century. This will be accompanied by more extreme weather, including intense heat and rainfall, ice melt, sea-level rise and ocean heat and acidification. The socioeconomic and environmental costs will soar. We must reduce the consumption of fossil fuels as a matter of urgency,” said Prof. Taalas.
“There is no magic wand to remove the excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But we have the tools to strengthen our understanding of the drivers of climate change through WMO’s new Global Greenhouse Gas Watch. This will greatly improve sustained observations and monitoring to support more ambitious climate goals,” said Prof. Taalas.
The report finds that there has been progress since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to increase by 16 per cent at the time of the agreement’s adoption. Today, the projected increase is 3 per cent. However, predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions still must fall by 28 per cent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway.
The report looks at how stronger implementation can increase the chances of the next round of NDCs, due in 2025, bringing down greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 to levels consistent with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. It also looks at the potential and risks of Carbon Dioxide Removal methods – such as nature-based solutions and direct air carbon capture and storage.
Planning over, Time of action
The longer we wait, the harder is it going to get. The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now.
“We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality. It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. And it demands a just, equitable renewables transition,” said Antònio Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations.
“There is no person or economy left on the planet untouched by climate change, so we need to stop setting unwanted records on greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature highs and extreme weather,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “We must instead lift the needle out of the same old groove of insufficient ambition and not enough action, and start setting other records: on cutting emissions, on green and just transitions and on climate finance.”
