On Friday, April 8, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket propelled the Dragon Endeavour spacecraft carrying the first all-private mission to the International Space Station (ISS). NASA’s involvement in the total mission was minimal, with SpaceX and Axiom in charge of everything until the actual docking with the ISS. The four private astronauts from Axiom will spend about 10 days aboard the ISS conducting scientific research before returning to Earth.
While there have been some recent moves around flying private citizens to the space, this mission is different than the usual billionaire club space tourism as it marks a significant step forward in building commercial space stations in the Lower Earth Orbit. Even as the immediate fate of ISS has been called into question following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent outbursts from the Roscosmos chief, the ISS was already slated to be retired after 2030, with NASA finally announcing a transition plan on January 31 this year. The latest ISS Program budget estimate for ISS life extension through 2030, and assumes deorbit in January 2031, and NASA plans to use the current decade to put in place a smooth transition to US-led commercial activities in LEO.
Axiom has been working on building its own space station and is in agreement with NASA to add its own modules to the American segment of the ISS. The April 8 mission, known as Ax-1, is intended to help Axiom learn the ropes before its first module, which can host up to eight astronauts, is launched some time in 2024. More modules will be added, and ultimately, when the ISS is retired, the Axiom Station will be designed to separate and function as an independent commercial space station.
In December 2021, NASA further signed agreements with three other US companies – Blue Origin, Nanoracks and Northrop Grumman Systems – to develop designs of space stations and other commercial destinations in space. The total estimated award amount of USD 415.6 million was aimed at stimulating US private sector to develop commercial, independent space stations that will be available to both government and private-sector customers.
For almost 24 years now, the ISS has maintained a continuous human presence in space with the first assembly missions beginning in 1998. Throughout the years, the five participating space agencies – NASA, Roscosmos, European Space Agency (ESA), the Canadian Space Agency and Japan’s JAXA – have together to operate, maintain, and upgrade parts of the station. The ISS is made up of 17 pressurized modules, six Russian, eight American, two Japanese and one European. But its lifetime is limited by the primary structure, which includes the modules, radiators, and truss structures, and according to NASA, the lifetime of the primary structure is affected by dynamic loading (such as spacecraft dockings/undockings) and orbital thermal cycling.
In December 2021, the US government announced its commitment to extend the ISS operations through 2030, and to work with the international partners to “enable continuation of the groundbreaking research being conducted in this unique orbiting laboratory through the rest of this decade”.
As part of the ISS transition report, NASA is looking use the ISS as a platform in the next few years to carry out further research and experiments for deep space missions. Concurrently, it also plans to use the time for enabling commercial LEO destinations (CLD), like with Axiom.
After Axiom, Blue Origin, Nanoracks, and Northrop Grumman have matured their designs and business models over the next few years, there are plans for second phase of activity whereby NASA contracts with one or more entities to certify their designs as safe and to purchase services from. The agency sees this second phase as an open competition, similar to the commercial crew transportation capabilities contracts that were awarded to SpaceX and Boeing for the commercial crew transportation program. As commercial LEO destinations become available by mid-to-late 2020s, there are plans for an orderly transition from current ISS operations to these new stations.
Figure 1 shows indicators to assess readiness to transition to commercial services and destinations. According to NASA, while the top two indicators – CLD readiness and ISS health – are the most critical, the others are important signals to consider for a smooth transition that achieves national goals in LEO.
Figure 2 shows the anticipated transition of current ISS users to future commercial destinations. This describes the model for accommodating users currently
on the ISS, and notional models for accommodation on a commercial destination. These models are expected to be further clarified in time as NASA continues to engage these user communities.
While Russia allowed private astronaut endeavours to visit the ISS as far back as 2001, that was more of a space tourism mission. NASA had resisted the practice, until it announced a change in policy in 2019, designed specifically to boost commercial opportunities in LEO.
The move came as the agency sought to shift its focus to human exploration of Moon by 2025, and similar plans for Mars exploration in the near future, where the US commercial industry is also slated to play an essential role.
According to NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, with commercial companies now providing transportation to LEO in place, the agency is partnering with US companies “to develop the space destinations where people can visit, live, and work, enabling NASA to continue forging a path in space for the benefit of humanity while fostering commercial activity in space”.
President Joe Biden’s Budget for 2022-23 has provide for USD 7.5 billion, a total of USD 1.1 billion above the 2021 enacted level, for the Artemis lunar exploration that seeks to return American astronauts to the Moon as early as 2025. Besides aimed at deepening our scientific understanding of the Moon, NASA also plans to use the mission to test technologies that would allow humans to explore Mars safely and sustainably. The lunar landing missions would also include astronauts from international partners.
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