A conversation with Mike Bechtel, Chief Futurist, Deloitte on the new era of space exploration, and how it is redefining innovation across myriad sectors, molding people’s lives, and unveiling new business opportunities.
“The path to space is increasingly affordable, with innovations like reusable rockets and advances in manufacturing dramatically lowering the cost to launch. These changes not only make it more financially sustainable, but they also begin to democratize space access”, says Mike in an exclusive interview with Geospatial World.
What do you think are the key defining trends in the space economy today, and what is the impact of exponential technologies such as AI and IoT, or Next (novel and exponential technologies) as you term them?
One of the most significant trends we are seeing is growing commercial engagement in space alongside more traditional government participation.
There is no denying the need for national actors to remain at the core of the space economy, but commercial players are contributing at a high level across the full spectrum of the new space economy.
We are seeing this across industries, from commercial space stations that will foster research and development (R&D), to private efforts to develop innovative orbital debris capture systems.
When it comes to exponential technologies, the leaps forward in AI, advanced robotics, and 3D printing are enabling increasingly autonomous operations in space. Where human involvement was once an expensive and risky requirement, new technology is stepping in to lower costs and increase safety.
Rather than send an astronaut to conduct a risky spacewalk to fix an exterior module, a multifunctional robot can do the job. And why should we have to return to Earth for parts if advanced 3D printing can give us the items we need without having to make an expensive trip?
Ultimately, novel and exponential (NExT) technologies allow us to return to first principles, pushing us toward a more abundant and accessible future. This convergence of factors will ultimately be what propels the space economy forward.
Geospatial infrastructure acts as a key enabler, interface, and catalyst to space applications and systems. How has the role of geospatial progressed over the years, in the run-up to New Space, and what would it look like in the future?
Geospatial infrastructure has long existed, from traditional satellites providing services like GPS to data transmissions between spacecraft and mission control on Earth. However, recent innovations in both hardware and software are changing the scope of what’s possible. These advances are set to increase the impact that geospatial infrastructure will have on on-Earth operations.
For example, lower hardware costs and feature miniaturization have resulted in the proliferation of smaller satellites that can be outfitted with Earth observation (EO) technology. These microsatellites generate robust data streams and provide continuous mapping of the Earth.
This has implications for Earth-based operations like agriculture, climate tracking, and disaster analysis. Growth in the number of satellites outfitted with optical laser communication systems, as well as the ability to use communication relays across satellites in different orbits, is contributing to a more comprehensive data transmission ecosystem.
A wider number of options begets a wider range of use cases that more companies, space-related or otherwise, can tap into and take advantage of as well.
In the latest Deloitte Space Tech report you say that Space today is at an inflection point akin to the ‘Age of Exploration’ in the 16th and 17th Centuries. What are the historical parallels you see and why?
When explorers in the Age of Exploration looked to the stars, they saw in them a path to new sources of wealth and opportunity. Centuries later, a new age of explorers is racing toward the stars in pursuit of those same goals and establishing new constellations (of satellites) while they’re at it.
Driven by a desire to deepen our understanding of our world and universe, empowered by advances in technology, and based in government and commercial partnerships, the ages of sea and space have shaped – and will continue to shape – humanity’s future.
While key commonalities may be noble, it is also critical that in this new Age of Exploration, we seek to avoid the pitfalls of our past.
We must ensure that the exploration of space does not result in the damaging biological and environmental changes brought about by the previous Age of Exploration. As we relentlessly pursue the future, we must be careful to consider the lessons of our past.
From rocket design and launchers to the quest for next-gen space stations and spaceports that can act as scientific incubators, no facet of space is untouched by ingenious innovation spurred by private enterprise. This is a radical departure from space being a turf of national space agencies. How would it contribute to inclusive economic and social value in the age of increasing protectionist tendencies?
The growth of private enterprise in space is opening the door to a new era of abundance. While governments built the launchpads for the current space age, it is blasting off due to commercial involvement. When it comes to protectionist tendencies, it’s important to keep in mind that space is, by nature, a global endeavor.
When you put a satellite or a space station into low Earth orbit (LEO), you don’t get to decide that it’s only going to orbit over North America, Africa, or Asia. With the orbital space around Earth getting increasingly crowded, cooperation between the many public and private actors active in orbit will be necessary to prevent collisions and ensure sustainable development.
When it comes to driving inclusive value, a great example of space’s potential is the expansion of mega-constellations – networks of thousands of satellites in low Earth orbit – that are extending internet coverage around the world.
This is helping communities in the most remote places on Earth access the internet and benefit from digital services that range from weather forecasts to global communication.
Going forward, it will be important to proactively consider how space-based innovation can drive social impact rather than allow most of the benefits to accrue to a privileged few.
From DARPA’s project that eventually birthed the Internet, to NASA’s Apollo Space Program, a lot of state-led projects spawned innovative breakthroughs in multiple sectors. Would we witness the same technology trickle down in the era of New Space?
We are already witnessing how innovation in space makes a real impact on our world. For example, a space-based study tracking the effects of microgravity on eye movement gave rise to an eye-tracking device that is now used in corrective laser eye surgeries around the world.
Today, researchers are attempting to create new drugs that prevent the atrophying effects of microgravity on the heart – drugs that could someday help patients who struggle with cardiac atrophy on Earth.
The unique conditions in orbit also offer new possibilities for research. The microgravity in space makes it much easier to create three-dimensional cell environments that mimic physiological forms within the human body.
One benefit of this environment is that it allows researchers to better study potential cancer therapies that specifically target tumors, as opposed to also attacking healthy proliferating tissue.
The potential for innovation doesn’t stop at human health and disease. The production of semiconductors with fewer impurities, higher quality fiber optic cables, and the unique ability to use and test products that would normally require harsh environments on Earth are all advantages gained from space-based R&D.
The growth in manufacturing and production capabilities in space will have ramifications on a multitude of industries in ways that we can’t be completely sure of yet.
Space is often touted to be the ‘final frontier’, yet the increasing ‘winner takes all’ high-stakes competition for orbital space would mean some trade-offs with the pursuit of sustainability imperative. How to harmonize commercial space with the need for collective common good?
The path to space is increasingly affordable, with innovations like reusable rockets and advances in manufacturing dramatically lowering the cost to launch. These changes not only make it more financially sustainable to enter space, but they also begin to democratize space by allowing more companies and countries to have access than ever before.
The democratization of space, and sustainability in space, are vital considerations for leaders at the forefront of the new space economy. Companies at the vanguard of the space industry are building infrastructure that will make the connection between Earth and space commonplace.
On the sustainability front, there is also an opportunity to resurrect new industries charged with cleaning up space debris. At present, there are more than 25,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 centimeters in orbit that are a threat to collide with larger satellites and space stations. Companies are tackling this problem by learning how to prevent future debris and experimenting with removing debris in orbit.
What is the Deloitte vision for Space?
Deloitte views space as table stakes for enterprises that want to thrive well into the future. Space transcends economic, national, and scientific boundaries, holding the potential to disrupt industries as we know them. Beyond its transformative impact on business and government, space inspires. It serves as a potent reminder of our common humanity and cultural symbol unlike any other.
Today, as we witness the advent of a new space age, we feel that the possibilities on the horizon – or, more accurately, above the horizon – are truly revolutionary. We want to help our clients engineer a future advantage by helping them see the possibilities that space holds.
Winning in this exciting environment demands innovation, agility, and precision. Organizations preparing to compete in space must be ready to face a changing regulatory environment, complex technological obstacles, and rapid innovation in the market – among other challenges.
Dynamic human capital, ranging from engineers to strategists to creators, is vital for navigating a world where every company is, in some way or another, a space company. Those who succeed will unlock trillions of dollars in value while shaping a new legacy for humanity and their organization.
