Last week we published about CoreLogic’s 2023 Hurricane Risk Report, which identified that more 32 million single family residences (SFRs) and an additional one million multi-family residences (MFRs) are at significant risk of 2023’s hurricane-force winds. The 2023 hurricane season started on June 1st and will continue through November 30th 2023 in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Geospatial World had the opportunity to interact with Jon Schneyer, Senior Catastrophe Response Manager at CoreLogic, to shed some light on the important findings from the report. CoreLogic is one of the leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider.
The key findings from the report.
33 million single- and multifamily residential homes, with an estimated total reconstruction cost value of $11.6 trillion, have a high degree of hurricane-wind risk this year. The size of the number speaks to the magnitude of risk across the Gulf and East Coasts states.
There is a small, nation-wide, year-over-year (YOY) percent increase in the number of properties, from 2022 to 2023, which may represent people’s preference to live near the coast despite the elevated risk. There is a larger YOY percent increase in the total reconstruction cost value of homes. The CoreLogic reconstruction cost technology accounts for the increased cost of materials and labor over the past year. There are other changes that also play into the reconstruction cost value increase YOY, such as improved public records and enhanced modelling techniques.
The NYC metro area, which includes Jersey City and Newark in New Jersey, leads all other major metropolitan areas, including known hurricane-prone regions such as Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach and the Houston metro area, in terms of the number of homes at risk to hurricane wind and storm surge. This may be counterintuitive because hurricane landfall frequency is higher in southeast Florida and the along the Gulf. The CoreLogic analysis did not account for hurricane landfall probabilities because the point was to highlight the areas in the United States with the greatest number of homes at-risk to hurricane wind and storm surge. If a major hurricane were to make landfall in the NYC metro area, the impact would be largest, as there is greater population/building density in proximity to the coastline and at a lower elevation relative to sea level.
What technologies and data did CoreLogic use for the report?
CoreLogic relied on its structure-level, U.S.-wide property database, hurricane wind and storm surge risk models to derive the results found in the report.
The property database was developed using a highly accurate geocoder to understand exactly where each individual home is located. A high level of precision is important, especially for a peril such as flood (or in this report’s case, storm surge), because flood depth can vary dramatically over a 5–10-meter distance, due to changes in ground elevation.
ALSO READ:33 Million Homes in US Coastlines at Significant Hurricane Damage Risks, Says Report
The storm surge and hurricane wind risk models use a high-resolution digital elevation model to account for changes in elevation across an individual parcel.
The CoreLogic hurricane wind risk and storm surge models rely on data including but not limited to, maximum sustained wind speeds, radius of maximum winds, storm surge heights, flood defense systems, and the high-resolution ground elevation model.
These reports have been out in the past, can you please shed light on what new steps have been taken this time to mitigate the risks?
The purpose of the report is not to outline how-to mitigate risk, but rather to provide a comprehensive understanding of what is at-risk across the US, and to highlight the areas with the greatest concentration of risk.
That being said, the model is updated on a recurring bases to account for new science, enhanced modelling capabilities and new, comprehensive data sources that contribute to this year’s hurricane wind and storm surge risk. Greater accuracy and precision in the exposure data (where the homes are located, what is at each home in terms of value and building characteristics) will lead to a more accurate view of risk, which is captured by the model output.
Insurers, banks, emergency managers, real estate developers and other industries can use the risk data in this report to better prepare for and mitigate future hurricane damage. An accurate understanding of what is at risk can lead to greater resilience in the face of natural disaster.
How geospatial technology play a role in mitigating such disaster events?
The geospatial technology that underpins the models and data sources used to create this report identify the areas of highest concentration of risk. CoreLogic’s risk models can show, at a high degree of precision down to individual streets, where flooding or wind risk is greatest. These are the areas that should have the greatest amount of attention and resources, when determining mitigation efforts. Bolstering the riskiest areas will reduce the overall damage and financial impact of hurricanes.
