MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., USA- – The consumer location-based services (LBS) market has steadily evolved over the past few years, always promising significant revenue generation, but never quite delivering the critical mass of subscribers that were expected. Now, a number of factors – including the development of third-party location databases and technologies – are poised to finally drive real LBS market growth on mobile phones.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan, ‘North America Consumer Location-Based Services (LBS) Market – The Wireless Carrier Opportunity’, estimates that carrier-generated consumer LBS revenues totaled over $480 million in 2008 and projects this figure to surpass $3.0 billion in 2013.
In the North American market, wireless carriers have acted as the major channel for consumer LBS sales, leveraging the location infrastructure they had to create earlier this decade to address Federal E-911 mandates. AT&T’s full entry into the consumer LBS sector now brings the brand power and subscriber bases of three major U.S. wireless carriers into play. However, other parties are beginning to chip away at the carriers’ gatekeeper role.
“While A-GPS is required for precise applications such as turn-by-turn navigation or family finder services, there are many LBS applications that neither require nor desire that level of location accuracy,” explains Frost & Sullivan Senior Industry Analyst Jeanine Sterling. “New location mechanisms, along with third-party generated location data bases, are opening up the consumer LBS sector to new applications, new channels, and new audiences.”
Cell ID can actually be “good enough” for some services; therefore, Google built its own cell tower database. Wi-Fi-based location provides strong coverage indoors, where GPS is weak, so Skyhook Wireless creates not only a Wi-Fi-based position determination technology but also a Wi-Fi access point database to go with it.
New entrants and new technologies are just two of the many forces that will drive increased adoption of consumer LBS during the next few years. However, uncertainty about how to optimally monetise this solution category remains an ongoing issue. The consumer LBS value chain remains fragmented, contributing to a diminishment in profits and making an industry shakeout inevitable. Until consolidation takes place, too many participants will continue to want a share in the revenue stream.
“To further aggravate the LBS revenue-sharing situation, we have Apple offering a wide assortment of location-based iPhone apps for free or for a one-time fee,” notes Sterling. “This can be viewed as a threat to wireless carriers and to LBS application developers. Even if the ultimate goal for many LBS stakeholders is an ad-based monetization model, we still don’t know yet what this arrangement will really end up looking like and which of today’s industry participants will survive to enjoy it.”
The report is part of the Mobile and Wireless Growth Partnership Service programme, which also includes research in the following markets: mobile office email/PIM solutions, mobile resource management (MRM), field asset management (FAM), and mobile CRM. All research services included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends that have been evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.
