France: Euroconsult expects that around 330 satellites with a mass over 50 kg will be launched on average each year by 2027 for government agencies and commercial organizations worldwide. This is a threefold increase over the past decade as the satellite market experiences a paradigm shift with the rise of small satellites and large constellations.
Euroconsult anticipates that over 40 constellations of various sizes and capabilities will launch about 2,300 satellites into low or medium Earth orbits for services as diverse as communications, navigation, Earth observation, meteorology and data collection from Earth sensors.
The 3,300 satellites over 50 kg to be launched over 2018–2027 is expected to represent a market of $284 billion for the space industry in terms of building and launching, up 25% over that of the past decade. At the same time, a price decrease is visible in the satellite industry, driven by the commercial constellations of smallsats introducing new production and operation concepts including economies of scale, softwarization, and vertical integration up to data analytics.
Governments will remain the largest customer of the satellite and launch industries with 1,300+ satellites to be launched over the next ten years for about 70 countries, for a market value of over $200 billion. 85% of the government market will remain concentrated in the top ten countries with an established space industry; the other 60 countries invest in satellite systems to develop domestic space capabilities, or to acquire their first systems in order to be more responsive to social and economic development.
In the commercial space sector, Euroconsult believes about 50 companies will launch almost 2,000 satellites, of which 1,700 units will be for 22 commercial constellations. Commercial space still means communications and broadcasting satellites in geostationary orbit; these satellites represent almost 50% of the $70 billion of commercial revenues expected over the decade. The two other large commercial markets are for non-geostationary orbit satellite constellations for communications and Earth observation. New commercial markets are emerging for in-orbit services such as life extension, and for inorbit tourism.
