Aditi Bhan
GIS Development
Courtesy: DigitalGlobe
Intelligence gathered from geospatial technology helped US forces track its most wanted man, Osama bin Laden
“Justice has been done.” With these words, US President Barrack Obama took the world by surprise on May 2, 2011, when he announced the elimination of the US’ most wanted man, Osama bin Laden. the news astonished the world for yet another reason – the surgical strike was carried out with absolute precision in a foreign land, Pakistan, without its government’s knowledge. While people reacted in different ways upon hearing the news, security agencies around the world were in awe of the intensity and intelligence involved in this operation. the attack not only established America’s military and intelligence superiority, it also demonstrated the country’s strong political will to go to any extent to stamp out its enemies.
Operation Neptune Spear (Operation Geronimo)
Day: Sunday
Date: May 1, 2011
Time: About 3.30 pm ET
Two MH-60 Black Hawk Helicopters carrying US Navy SEALs enter a compound in Abbottabad, about 35 miles north of Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. One of the helicopters develop technical snag and makes a hard landing. A team of 24 SEALs storm the three-story building. A firefight follows, resulting in the instant death of five people (four men and a woman) and injuring two women. One of the dead is identified as Osama bin Laden, 54, shot in the face. No US casualty takes place. the assault team destroys the problematic aircraft and leave with bin Laden’s body in another aircraft which was at stand-by. the mission is accomplished in 40 minutes flat.
Later, DNA tests and facial-recognition technology help confirm bin Laden’s identity. His body is buried at sea. the whole operation gets over in 12 hours.
However, the efforts involved in making this operation a success entailed years of hard work by intelligence agencies.
Background
Post 9/11, the US directed its efforts in strengthening its intelligence network – both electronic and human. It spread out its network to gather information about Osama bin Laden and his organisation, Al-Qaeda – believed to be behind the attacks.
the CIA led the operation, and was supported mainly by three agencies – the National Security Agency (NSA) responsible for monitoring and intercepting communications around the world, the National Geospatial- Intelligence Agency or NGA (responsible for collection, analysis and distribution of geospatial information), and National Reconnaissance Office (provides spy satellite images).
Years of interrogation of detainees captured by US in Afghanistan, and with the help of Pakistan, helped intelligence agencies identify one of bin Laden’s most trusted couriers, Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti (his true identity is still debated but his real name is believed to be Sheikh Abu Ahmed, a Pakistan’s resident born in Kuwait). However, it was only last year that the intelligence agencies (NSA) were able to intercept his phone call, which ultimately led them to the compound in Abbottabad in August 2010.
Hunt for Osama
Experts say two theories are likely to have been used to determine Osama’s whereabouts – Distance-decay theory, and theory of Island Biogeography.
Distance-decay theory – It states that the interaction between two locales declines with an increase of distance between them. Once the distance is outside of each other’s activity space, their interactions begin to lessen.
As per this theory, bin Laden was likely to be closest to the point where he was last seen and within a region that had a similar physical and cultural composition (that is, similar religious and political beliefs). In other words, the further he moved into the interiors of Pakistan or India, the greater the chances of him getting captured or eliminated.
theory of Island Biogeography – As per this theory, species on a large island are less likely to go extinct following a catastrophic event than species on a small one. It basically states that a person is likely to go to a region with a low extinction rate, for example, a large town, for survival.
Hence, bin Laden was likely to be in a larger town than a smaller and isolated one where extinction rate would be higher.
Based on these two theories, in 2009, UCLA students led by professors thomas Gillespie and John Agnew, authored a paper predicting Osama bin Laden’s whereabouts. they used probability models that are usually applied for studying endangered species, and information from satellites and other remote sensing systems, and concluded that he was living in a city, not a village or cave as was widely presumed. As per their study, there was 81 per cent chance that he was in Abbottabad.
Courtesy: DigitalGlobe
The geospatial edge
Based on the above-mentioned theories and assisted by satellite imagery, high-resolution images of cities were used to identify individual buildings that match bin Laden’s life history characteristics (see Table 1 for a complete list of life history characteristics used to derive structural building requirements).
Satellite images and imagery gathered from drones revealed that the compound was relatively secluded when it was built in 2005. the main structure was a three-story building with hardly any windows. What really set the alarm bells ringing among intelligence were the following:
- the location and design of the compound.
- the building had a terrace on the third floor which had a seven-foot wall.
- It had 12-18-foot walls topped with barbed wire. Also, internal walls sectioned off different portions of the compound to provide extra privacy.
- Access to the compound was restricted by two security gates.
- Unlike their neighbours who put the trash out for collection, the residents burnt their trash in the compound itself.
Moreover, intelligence gathered also revealed that the property, valued at about USD 1 million, had no phone or Internet connection.
the above observations concluded that the compound was custom built to hide someone very significant. Having discovered that it was the residence of bin Laden’s trusted courier, the CIA suspected the presence of Osama at this heavily fortified complex. However, US officials weren’t sure about the identity of the person inside until the last moment.
NGA’s role
Once the intelligence agencies zeroed in on the compound, NGA began to study it intensively. Using imagery from spy planes, satellites from commercial imagery providers like DigitalGlobe and GeoEye, and spy satellites (provided by National Reconnaissance Office), RQ-170 Sentinel Stealth Drone, and information from several sources including transcripts of intercepted phone calls, the NGA produced detailed maps of the compound – its dimensions and features.
Its ability to conduct imagery analysis in all weathers (the hyperspectral and multispectral sensors on satellites and drones are so powerful that they can see through thick clouds) ensured that the target was never out of sight. Moreover, by performing sophisticated pattern analysis of human characteristics, like body size and gait, NGA analysed the ‘pattern of life’ of the inhabitants of the compound – the height and gender of the people living there, people coming in and leaving the compound; and even what was happening inside the compound.
the study was so intensive that the US, at the time of operation, was aware about the number of people living inside the compound. Officials believe there were 22 people living in the compound.
After working on the details within the compound, NGA also helped the Joint Special Operations Command (the Navy SEALs) prepare for the D-day by:
- Creating mission simulators for the pilots who flew the helicopters
- Producing three-dimensional rendering of the compound
- Its capability to determine the composition of an object or a building from a distance helped the aircraft to land at the right place inside the compound
this helped the forces create a replica of the compound (replica was built inside Camp Alpha, a restricted section of the Bagram military base in Afghanistan) wherein Navy SEALs are said to have carried out practice runs on April 7 and April 13.
| TOOLS USED |
| RQ-170: The Lockheed Martin RQ-170 drone is built exclusively for reconnaissance missions. It has a 20m wingspan, can fly as high as 15,000m and uses video cameras and hyperspectral sensors to collect data.
Data from RQ-170 was analysed by NGA before, during and after the raid on the compound. MH-60 Black Hawk Helicopter: The stealth helicopter/ night stalker helicopter is especially designed for special missions. It can carry about 12 soldiers, is equipped with infra-red jammers to mislead missiles, and can support three types of guns (mini, chain, gatling). GPS satellites: GPS satellites aided the helicopters, used in the operation, to fly into Pakistan beneath radar coverage, orbiting at 12,500 miles above Earth. Hyperspectral Image Sensors: These sensors use the invisible chemical properties of objects to form an image that’s beyond human being’s visible spectrum. These sensors, which were mounted to aircraft used for the operation, enabled forces to gain high resolution photos of the compound in total darkness. Satellite-Linked Helmet Cameras: The helmets used in the operation are reported to have been equipped with video recorders, which transmitted the live action to the White House via satellite. |
The D-Day
Despite scrutinising the site for months, satellites were unable to capture an image of bin Laden. this acted as a hindrance to the operation, even though every evidence gathered suggested otherwise. In fact, White House’s original plan is said to have been to bomb the house, but President Obama decided against that. And the rest, as we know, is history.
(With inputs from Brig A S Nagra,
www.seattlepi.com, www.nationaljournal.com,
www.bbc.co.uk, www.seattlepi.com,
www.gizmodo.com.au,
www.spaceflightnow.com,
https://web.mit.edu/mitir/, Wikipedia)
