There is a pressing need to prepare for a new world order in the wake of paradigm shifts in the understanding of new technological concepts.
Speaking on the topic of Geo-Politics of Evolving World Order, in a session moderated by John Kedar, Independent Global Geospatial Strategy Advisor and Consultant, former Ambassador Syed Akbaruddin, Dean, Kautilya School of Public Policy remarked that a rapidly changing world full of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, or VUCA, was worrying to him personally, but is something the geospatial community is thriving on.
“What you’re seeing is extraordinary change and it is happening on multiple spheres — economic, technological, environmental, and social. Some have even called it the era of mega change,” opined Akbaruddin on the current scenario. He added, “The change that is happening is much larger than what all of us envisaged.”
“Today, the boundary between internal and external, domestic and foreign is gradually reducing,” said Akbaruddin, stressing that technology in general — and geospatial technology in particular — was playing a big part in it.
Underscoring the rise of non-traditional powers, Akbaruddin mentioned China’s case. “However, China isn’t the only rising power, there are others too — India, ASEAN, Korea, and many others. All these simultaneous rises are creating a jostling for space.” He then talked about the geopolitical shifts that had taken place in the world in the last few decades — for the first time, the combined global economic share of the OECD countries has dropped below 50%, while China has become the largest trading partner for 110 countries, besides being the largest provider of aid or loans to 145 countries.
Since all this is reflective of a shifting global balance, Akbaruddin cautioned that it was critical to prepare for it. Citing paradigm changes in the understanding of various concepts, such as security, space, trade, public health, climate, etc., he iterated that there was need for regulation to catch up with these fast-paced changes. “Since 2019, the number of working satellites has gone up by 50%, largely because new non-state commercial actors are exploiting launch costs to build businesses in space,” he pointed out.
“There is no space traffic management for low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, and this where most commercial satellites are targeted. Even while many of us were fascinated by who was going to win between Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos, the real race was happening somewhere else; it was not the tourist industry race, it was the race to put in satellites up into orbit,” Akbaruddin added.
“Since orbital space is on a first come, first served basis, the first movers have the advantage,” said Akbaruddin, with the injunction that a monopoly might soon be on the cards for the LEO space, which could determine the availability of suitable real estate in space, the formulation of rules, establishment of standards and procedures, as well as the innovation cycles for future technology in the area, though the monopoly might bring considerable benefits for now.
“The 1967 Outer Space Treaty prevents governments from extending their jurisdiction into space. But, they retain the authority to put objects into space including the rights to destroy them, so they have extra-territorial sovereignty over their own objects. Is this adequate?” asked Akbaruddin before delving into the limitations of coordination and monitoring in space.
“We don’t need to reinvent the wheel. If a civil regime has been developed for international aviation, is it not possible to develop it for LEO?” Akbaruddin said before concluding that this was where other stakeholders such as the geospatial community present at the conference came in. “It is time for you to look at the bigger picture and emphasize the need of a framework,” Akbaruddin concluded.
